Global Equity Score remains bullish. Major upgrades were made to Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in the Sector Model. The Style Indicator continues to favor Large-Cap Value....
MORENA has once again swept the Mexican election: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president, with little to no constraint in Congress. All in all, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive of markets. In the medium term, fiscal spending will return to conservatism and the constitutional r...
European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?...
Generative AI-related rally resumed in May. Much of the recent market gains are down to excess liquidity that was begotten by the massive pandemic stimulus, creating a dichotomy between multiple economic challenges and exuberant markets. The Fed is unlikely to step in to prevent the bubble as it is ...
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive....
MacroQuant sees significant downside risks to stocks over a 1-to-3 month horizon and suggests increasing allocation to long-term bonds. The model favours defensive equity sectors but is also hedging its bets by overweighting materials....
Democrats remain slightly favored for the White House because they are the four-year incumbent presidential party and the economy is not in recession. But if the unemployment rate rises in the lead up to November, then Biden and Democrats will become disfavored regardless of Trump’s convictions....
