We were stopped out of our defensive asset allocation recommendations last Thursday, when the S&P 500 closed above 6,100, but our reading of the labor market tea leaves still supports a bearish fundamental view....
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?...
We forecast Treasury and corporate bond returns in three different economic scenarios. This report focuses on what returns might look like in a scenario where inflation is sticky and the Fed makes a hawkish pivot....
This week, our three screeners show you how to setup easy monitoring of the BCA Score, take advantage of earnings season in the US, and seek out global stocks that are cheap and high quality....
In today’s Strategy Insight, we discuss the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of Japan, following the 25-bps rate hike overnight, and what it means for JGBs and the yen....
While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet....
Sentiment will stay positive for now, but downside risks are rising. Investors should proceed cautiously in stock picking and portfolio construction at this juncture, given rising economic and policy uncertainty, which threaten market sentiment, and more broadly, the current bull-market....
There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big ...
Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a strong pipeline of capital market activity. Key risks are further ...
President Trump is only the second president to have won, lost, and won again in US history, so today’s inaugural address was unlike any other since Grover Cleveland in 1893....
