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Developed Countries

Portfolio
PMA Quarterly Outlook: Tomorrow’s Winners and Losers Amongst Private Markets and Alternatives

We see a more positive backdrop for credit providers, with bilateral and structuring features as tailwinds for Private Credit. While there may be potential green shoots in some areas of Private Equity, current valuations are not attractive. We prefer Directional Hedge Funds over Diversifier and Risk Mitigation strategies. Real Estate has been an effective hedge against inflation, but now historically low cap rates are a headwind.

3 years ago
Essentials
Deteriorating Outlook Weighs On US Consumer Sentiment
The US Conference Board’s Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed on Tuesday. The headline gauge unexpectedly fell to 101.3, below expectations it would remain unchanged at 104.0. The deterioration came on the back of a 5.8-point decline in the Expectations…
3 years ago
Essentials
US Capital Goods: Losing Their Appeal
The US Capital Goods industry was relatively resilient last year, ending 2022 roughly unchanged. In particular, a rally in the second half of the year led to a 20% gain vis-à-vis the S&P 500. Multiple long-term tailwinds contributed to this outperformance.…
3 years ago
Essentials
Revisiting US Market Concentration
The S&P 500’s index concentration has been on investors’ radar for a while now. The chart above illustrates that the effective number of stocks in the S&P 500 has been declining steadily since its February 2014 peak of 143, eventually falling to 54 stocks in…
3 years ago
Essentials
Europe: Hedging Market Risk
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the downside in earnings over the remainder of the year creates a dangerous risk that can catalyze a sharp pullback at any moment. To protect themselves, investors can separate the alpha and…
3 years ago
FICC
US Debt Ceiling: Taking It To The Limit
Special Report

This Special Report discusses why there is a non-negligible risk that the US Congress will not reach a timely agreement to lift the debt ceiling this summer. It also discusses what will happen in bond markets in the lead up to the debt limit and in the case where a deal is not reached in time.

Ryan Swift, Matt Gertken
3 years ago
Essentials
German Business Morale Improves Slightly
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index inched up from 93.2 to 93.6 in April, slightly above anticipations of a more muted rise to 93.4. Interestingly, a 1.2-point increase in the Expectations components drove the improvement in the headline index and surprised…
3 years ago
Essentials
French Consumer Discretionary Equities Benefit From China’s Reopening
French MSCI consumer discretionary shares have performed strongly over the past year, booking a gain of 31%. Consequently, they have outperformed global consumer discretionary by 42%, and the Eurozone stock market by 24%. As a result, French consumer…
3 years ago
Essentials
What The US Banks See
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the SIFI banks’ first quarter earnings confirm that an inflection in the business cycle is not just around the corner. The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) reported their first quarter earnings over…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
Valuation And Earnings Filters To Hedge Market Risk

European equities continue to inch closer to record highs, yet, their earnings outlook is deteriorating. How can investors build hedging portfolios using the message from earnings and valuations to protect themselves against the growing risk of a pullback?

Mathieu Savary
3 years ago

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