Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

Fed rhetoric is likely to shift in a somewhat more hawkish direction over the coming months as the FOMC starts to prep the market for a December rate hike. Against the backdrop of weak earnings growth and diminished share buyback activity, stocks have become vulnerable to a correction.

We put the odds of a Fed rate hike this year at slightly better than 50/50. But in the event of a rate hike, any sell-off in risk assets will be relatively short-lived and not as severe as the sell-off that followed the initial rate increase last December.

Special Report

Commercial real estate and REITs have benefited greatly from accommodative monetary policy. Though they are approaching a peak, our analysis shows that they remain in a "goldilocks" scenario and still offer plenty of upside.

The lack of inflation makes a Fed rate hike before December unlikely. In the interim, the continued flow of liquidity could sustain the high-risk rally.

Special Report

Xi Jinping has not overthrown China's consensual leadership model; The Communist Party is highly vulnerable to the emerging middle class; Factional struggles will re-emerge before the 2017 Party Congress; Economic structural reform is constrained by a host of factors; Geopolitical tail risks will remain elevated.

Special Report

The populist backlash, if left unchecked, could spiral out of control, leading to severe losses for investors. Concerns about lax financial regulation, rising inequality, unfettered globalization, and fiscal austerity are understandable. Addressing these grievances will hurt corporate profits short-term, but could lead to a more resilient economy longer-term. Investors should position for modestly higher inflation and steepening yield curves. Near-term, equities are technically overbought, but will benefit from the shift to more stimulative fiscal and monetary policies.

Special Report

Brazilian risk assets have rallied on the back of investor optimism about the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. But the political games have just begun. With all politicians looking to the October municipal elections and 2018 general elections, the Michel Temer administration is unlikely to impose fiscal and structural reforms. Debt dynamics are set to worsen, and we continue to short Brazilian equities.

The evolution of oil demand will be far more important for prices than the outcome of next month's International Energy Forum meeting in Algiers. The supply destruction brought on by lower prices is increasingly shifting to OPEC producers outside the Persian Gulf, which keeps the odds of a large-scale unplanned outage - in Venezuela or Nigeria, in particular - elevated.