Latest from BCA Research

Continue overweighting Mexican stocks, sovereign credit, and local bonds relative to their respective EM benchmarks. That said, the peso is overbought and will correct versus the US dollar. Therefore, we recommend that investors hedge the currency risk for their outright long positions in Mexican equity and local bond markets for the next few months.

The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher unemployment. Or, not cut rates early and go the final mile to 2 percent price inflation, at the risk of higher unemployment. We discuss which way the Fed is likely to tilt, and the investment implications. Plus: China is oversold while Japan is overbought.

Bank Credit Analyst

This report presents the main ways to invest in the Nuclear Renaissance; from exposure to physical uranium to equity plays alongside or outside the nuclear fuel cycle.

Special Report

Multifamily Real Estate is poised for a downturn, which will have ripple effects on the global economy. Present market fundamentals fail to compensate for the risks. Investors should seek opportunities in Fixed Income and Credit markets, while avoiding equity investments in Multifamily.

Special Report

The odds of a “Minsky Moment” for the Chinese banking sector are low. They, however, will continue facing cyclical and structural headwinds, including a dismal asset quality and profit outlook. Bank stocks remain a value trap. Absolute-return investors should sell rebounds in Chinese bank stocks.

Though there are some positive signals recently for the Democrats, it is still hard for them to close the gap and turn things around. The Republicans are still favored to win the Senate as well as the House in the upcoming election.

The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.

Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?

Special Report

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.

Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course of doing some pushing back of our own.