In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years....
The three major oil forecasters – IEA, EIA, and OPEC – are forecasting oil demand growth until 2025 to be broadly in line with its range over the past four decades. On a cyclical horizon, we give high odds that a recession will begin within the coming 6-12 months, disappointing these oil demand fore...
In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years....
In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and developed market rates cuts will likely be too modest and come too late ...
In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years....
Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months....
The large buildup in Chinese households’ savings deposits is unlikely to fuel consumption. Poor outlooks on labor market conditions, income, and households’ unwillingness to borrow will hinder consumption through the rest of 2024....
Historically, the biggest driver of the small cap premium was “migration” i.e., a subset of small stocks earning extreme positive returns as they become large stocks. However, migration rates between small and large stocks have declined in the US. Small companies that would have grown to become succ...
In this Special Report we assess the absolute and relative attractiveness of developed market government bonds using several fair value models. Longer-term investors who are focused on value should overweight US long-maturity bonds, and favor Spanish, Australian, and potentially UK government bonds ...
We recommend overweight in Pharma over a tactical and strategic investment horizon, as challenges, that have recently hampered the industry group’s performance, are dissipating. Likely election outcomes are positive for the industry, while major trends like generative AI applied to drug development ...
